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Marc Woolhead v George Willis (Thu 05 Dec 2013)

Match won by Marc Woolhead. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Marc Woolhead: 7,578, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for George Willis: 4,810, level confidence: 51%.
Marc Woolhead to win as he is currently playing 58% better than George Willis.

Marc Woolhead won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marc Woolhead played 70% better than George Willis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marc Woolhead actually played at a level of 7,872 and George Willis at a level of 4,630. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marc Woolhead changes to +2.2% and George Willis changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marc Woolhead becomes +1.2% and for George Willis becomes -1.8%.

Given Marc Woolhead's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Marc Woolhead is +0.8% and for George Willis is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marc Woolhead: 84%, George Willis: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marc Woolhead: 81%, George Willis: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marc Woolhead: 7,627, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for George Willis: 4,738, level confidence: 69%.