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Amber Marshall v Katie Winterstein (Mon 09 Dec 2013)

Match won by Amber Marshall. Result: 15-6,15-13,14-16,15-11.

Starting level for Amber Marshall: 328, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for Katie Winterstein: 254, level confidence: 10%.
Amber Marshall to win as she is currently playing 29% better than Katie Winterstein.

Amber Marshall won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Amber Marshall played 26% better than Katie Winterstein in this match.

In this case, Amber Marshall played at level 321 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Katie Winterstein is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Amber Marshall changes to 0% and Katie Winterstein changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Amber Marshall becomes 0% and for Katie Winterstein becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Amber Marshall is 0% and for Katie Winterstein is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Amber Marshall: 61%, Katie Winterstein: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Amber Marshall: 60%, Katie Winterstein: 31%.

Final level for Amber Marshall: 328, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Katie Winterstein: 254, level confidence: 31%.