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Dominic Webster v Justin Turnpenny (Tue 10 Dec 2013)

Match won by Justin Turnpenny. Result: 6-15,17-15,11-15,7-15.

Starting level for Dominic Webster: 1,313, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,436, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Justin Turnpenny to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Dominic Webster.

Justin Turnpenny won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Justin Turnpenny played 32% better than Dominic Webster in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Justin Turnpenny actually played at a level of 1,578 and Dominic Webster at a level of 1,195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny changes to +9.4% and Dominic Webster changes to -8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny becomes +5.3% and for Dominic Webster becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny is +4% and for Dominic Webster is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Justin Turnpenny: 87%, Dominic Webster: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Justin Turnpenny: 79%, Dominic Webster: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dominic Webster: 1,261, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,491, level confidence: 79%.