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Robert Brooks v Will Clarke (Tue 10 Dec 2013)

Match won by Will Clarke. Result: 15-13,11-15,10-15,16-14,12-15.

Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,586, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Will Clarke: 1,960, level confidence: 66%.
Will Clarke to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Robert Brooks.

Will Clarke won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Clarke played 11% better than Robert Brooks in this match.

As Will Clarke has played below his allowed range at 1,824, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Will Clarke would normally have been playing at level 1,931 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Brooks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Clarke changes to -3.6% and Robert Brooks changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Clarke becomes -2.6% and for Robert Brooks becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Will Clarke is -1.9% and for Robert Brooks is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Clarke: 82%, Robert Brooks: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Clarke: 77%, Robert Brooks: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,615, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Will Clarke: 1,920, level confidence: 77%.