Julian Vecchio v Robin McCorquodale (Tue 10 Dec 2013)
Match won by Julian Vecchio. Result: 15-5,7-15,15-10,15-8.
Starting level for
Julian Vecchio:
2,400, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Robin McCorquodale:
1,960, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Julian Vecchio to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Robin McCorquodale.
Julian Vecchio won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Vecchio played
29% better than Robin McCorquodale in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Vecchio actually played at a level of
2,462 and Robin McCorquodale at a level of
1,910. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Vecchio changes to +2.3% and Robin McCorquodale changes to -2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Vecchio becomes +1.7% and for Robin McCorquodale becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Julian Vecchio is +1.3% and for Robin McCorquodale is -1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Vecchio: 83%, Robin McCorquodale: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Vecchio: 81%, Robin McCorquodale: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Julian Vecchio:
2,427, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Robin McCorquodale:
1,935, level confidence: 89%.