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Karl Pyle v Andrew James (Wed 11 Dec 2013)

Match won by Karl Pyle. Result: 15-8,15-7,15-12.

Starting level for Karl Pyle: 1,809, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew James: 1,432, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Karl Pyle to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Andrew James.

Karl Pyle won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Pyle played 67% better than Andrew James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karl Pyle actually played at a level of 2,078 and Andrew James at a level of 1,247. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Pyle changes to +11% and Andrew James changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Pyle becomes +5.6% and for Andrew James becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Karl Pyle is +4.2% and for Andrew James is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Pyle: 91%, Andrew James: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Pyle: 79%, Andrew James: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Pyle: 1,882, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Andrew James: 1,362, level confidence: 74%.