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Jack Taylor v Chris Ginn (Wed 11 Dec 2013)

Match won by Jack Taylor. Result: 15-6,15-9,15-13.

Starting level for Jack Taylor: 2,008, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Ginn: 1,670, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Jack Taylor to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Chris Ginn.

Jack Taylor won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Taylor played 61% better than Chris Ginn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Taylor actually played at a level of 2,321 and Chris Ginn at a level of 1,444. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Taylor changes to +13% and Chris Ginn changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Taylor becomes +5.9% and for Chris Ginn becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Jack Taylor is +4.4% and for Chris Ginn is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Taylor: 92%, Chris Ginn: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Taylor: 79%, Chris Ginn: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Taylor: 2,093, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Ginn: 1,588, level confidence: 75%.