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Tim Bloomer v Brad Whitbread (Wed 11 Dec 2013)

Match won by Tim Bloomer. Result: 11-15,15-13,15-8,15-10.

Starting level for Tim Bloomer: 3,058, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Brad Whitbread: 2,147, level confidence: 41%.
Tim Bloomer to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Brad Whitbread.

Tim Bloomer won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Bloomer played 24% better than Brad Whitbread in this match.

As Tim Bloomer has played below his allowed range at 2,730, his level reduction is 2.6% before damping. On the assumption that Tim Bloomer would normally have been playing at level 2,941 (based on typical behaviour), Brad Whitbread played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer changes to -1.5% and Brad Whitbread changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer becomes -1% and for Brad Whitbread becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tim Bloomer is -0.8% and for Brad Whitbread is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Bloomer: 77%, Brad Whitbread: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Bloomer: 72%, Brad Whitbread: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Bloomer: 3,030, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Brad Whitbread: 2,188, level confidence: 60%.