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David Gandolfo v Nick Boardman (Wed 11 Dec 2013)

Match won by David Gandolfo. Result: 15-9,15-13,15-4.

Starting level for David Gandolfo: 2,093, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Boardman: 1,325, level confidence: 31%.
David Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Nick Boardman.

David Gandolfo won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Gandolfo played 73% better than Nick Boardman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Gandolfo actually played at a level of 2,191 and Nick Boardman at a level of 1,266. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Gandolfo changes to +1.6% and Nick Boardman changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Gandolfo becomes +1.2% and for Nick Boardman becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for David Gandolfo is +0.9% and for Nick Boardman is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Gandolfo: 85%, Nick Boardman: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Gandolfo: 81%, Nick Boardman: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Gandolfo: 2,109, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nick Boardman: 1,294, level confidence: 53%.