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Gareth Jones v Paul Cooper (Thu 12 Dec 2013)

Match won by Gareth Jones. Result: 15-10,17-15,15-4.

Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,243, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Cooper: 1,129, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Gareth Jones to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Paul Cooper.

Gareth Jones won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gareth Jones played 62% better than Paul Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gareth Jones actually played at a level of 1,508 and Paul Cooper at a level of 931. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gareth Jones changes to +20% and Paul Cooper changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gareth Jones becomes +10.3% and for Paul Cooper becomes -10.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Gareth Jones is +7.7% and for Paul Cooper is -7.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Cooper is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gareth Jones: 89%, Paul Cooper: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gareth Jones: 73%, Paul Cooper: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,337, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Cooper: 1,074, level confidence: 75%.