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Ian Collin v Andrew Armstrong (Thu 12 Dec 2013)

Match won by Andrew Armstrong. Result: 10-15,15-8,16-18,11-15.

Starting level for Ian Collin: 1,651, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Armstrong: 2,450, level confidence: 43%.
Andrew Armstrong to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Ian Collin.

Andrew Armstrong won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Armstrong played 19% better than Ian Collin in this match.

As Andrew Armstrong has played below his allowed range at 2,083, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Andrew Armstrong would normally have been playing at level 2,337 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Collin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Armstrong changes to -4.7% and Ian Collin changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Armstrong becomes -2.8% and for Ian Collin becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Andrew Armstrong is -2.1% and for Ian Collin is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Armstrong: 66%, Ian Collin: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Armstrong: 59%, Ian Collin: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Collin: 1,684, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Andrew Armstrong: 2,396, level confidence: 59%.