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John McFarlane v Martin White (Tue 07 Jan 2014)

Match won by John McFarlane. Result: 15-11,15-7,15-8.

Starting level for John McFarlane: 2,628, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Martin White: 2,507, level confidence: 68%.
John McFarlane to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Martin White.

John McFarlane won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John McFarlane played 73% better than Martin White in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John McFarlane actually played at a level of 3,377 and Martin White at a level of 1,951. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John McFarlane changes to +28% and Martin White changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John McFarlane becomes +10.1% and for Martin White becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for John McFarlane is +7.6% and for Martin White is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John McFarlane: 64%, Martin White: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John McFarlane: 50%, Martin White: 64%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John McFarlane: 2,824, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Martin White: 2,448, level confidence: 64%.