Phil Littlefair v Mark Castle (Wed 08 Jan 2014)
Match won by Mark Castle. Result: 7-15,15-12,13-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Phil Littlefair:
1,280, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Mark Castle:
1,107, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Mark Castle.
Mark Castle won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Castle played
29% better than Phil Littlefair in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Castle actually played at a level of
1,350 and Phil Littlefair at a level of
1,050. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Castle changes to +14% and Phil Littlefair changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Castle becomes +8.2% and for Phil Littlefair becomes -10.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Mark Castle is +6.1% and for Phil Littlefair is -7.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Castle: 87%, Phil Littlefair: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Castle: 72%, Phil Littlefair: 60%.
A final adjustment of +1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Phil Littlefair:
1,233, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Mark Castle:
1,173, level confidence: 72%.