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Dan Easton v Paul Scott-Stevens (Tue 14 Jan 2014)

Match won by Paul Scott-Stevens. Result: 14-16,15-10,12-15,8-15.

Starting level for Dan Easton: 2,363, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 2,326, level confidence: 65%.
Dan Easton to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Paul Scott-Stevens.

Paul Scott-Stevens won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Scott-Stevens played 21% better than Dan Easton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Scott-Stevens actually played at a level of 2,584 and Dan Easton at a level of 2,127. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens changes to +11% and Dan Easton changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens becomes +5% and for Dan Easton becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens is +3.8% and for Dan Easton is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Scott-Stevens: 81%, Dan Easton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Scott-Stevens: 73%, Dan Easton: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Easton: 2,280, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 2,410, level confidence: 73%.