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David Lloyd v Storm Hart (Tue 14 Jan 2014)

Match won by David Lloyd. Result: 15-4,15-13,9-15,6-15,15-9.

Starting level for David Lloyd: 1,052, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Storm Hart: 1,337, level confidence: 45%.
Storm Hart to win as he is currently playing 27% better than David Lloyd.

David Lloyd won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Lloyd played 9% better than Storm Hart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Lloyd actually played at a level of 1,240 and Storm Hart at a level of 1,134. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Lloyd changes to +8.9% and Storm Hart changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Lloyd becomes +5.8% and for Storm Hart becomes -8.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for David Lloyd is +4.3% and for Storm Hart is -6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Storm Hart is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Lloyd: 89%, Storm Hart: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Lloyd: 75%, Storm Hart: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Lloyd: 1,096, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Storm Hart: 1,271, level confidence: 57%.