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Simon Totten v Robert Brooks (Tue 14 Jan 2014)

Match won by Robert Brooks. Result: 7-15,15-7,15-8,15-17,7-15.

Starting level for Simon Totten: 1,871, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,698, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Simon Totten to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Robert Brooks.

Robert Brooks won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Brooks played 9% better than Simon Totten in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Brooks actually played at a level of 1,859 and Simon Totten at a level of 1,709. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Brooks changes to +8.8% and Simon Totten changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Brooks becomes +4.8% and for Simon Totten becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Robert Brooks is +3.6% and for Simon Totten is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Brooks: 84%, Simon Totten: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Brooks: 77%, Simon Totten: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Totten: 1,831, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,756, level confidence: 77%.