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Martin Harding v Wayne Davidson (Tue 14 Jan 2014)

Match won by Wayne Davidson. Result: 14-16,9-15,15-11,15-5,9-15.

Starting level for Martin Harding: 1,947, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Wayne Davidson: 2,019, level confidence: 63%.
Wayne Davidson to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Martin Harding.

Wayne Davidson won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wayne Davidson played 8% better than Martin Harding in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wayne Davidson actually played at a level of 2,056 and Martin Harding at a level of 1,912. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wayne Davidson changes to +1.8% and Martin Harding changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wayne Davidson becomes +1.4% and for Martin Harding becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Wayne Davidson is +1% and for Martin Harding is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wayne Davidson: 80%, Martin Harding: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wayne Davidson: 78%, Martin Harding: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Harding: 1,924, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Wayne Davidson: 2,036, level confidence: 78%.