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Matt Mulara v Matt Steele (Wed 15 Jan 2014)

Match won by Matt Mulara. Result: 15-9,15-4,15-3.

Starting level for Matt Mulara: 2,712, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matt Steele: 1,690, level confidence: 63%.
Matt Mulara to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Matt Steele.

Matt Mulara won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Mulara played 181% better than Matt Steele in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Mulara actually played at a level of 3,590 and Matt Steele at a level of 1,277. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Mulara changes to +18% and Matt Steele changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Mulara becomes +7.1% and for Matt Steele becomes -10.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Matt Mulara is +5.3% and for Matt Steele is -7.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matt Steele is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Mulara: 93%, Matt Steele: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Mulara: 70%, Matt Steele: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Mulara: 2,852, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Matt Steele: 1,607, level confidence: 60%.