SquashLevels calculations
Mike Gregory v Rory Pennell (Thu 16 Jan 2014)
Match won by Rory Pennell. Result: 9-11,9-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Mike Gregory:
7,601, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rory Pennell:
10,750, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Rory Pennell to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Mike Gregory.
Rory Pennell won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Pennell played
40% better than Mike Gregory in this match.
In this case, Rory Pennell played at level 10,610 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mike Gregory is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Pennell: 84%, Mike Gregory: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Pennell: 84%, Mike Gregory: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mike Gregory:
7,590, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Rory Pennell:
10,734, level confidence: 84%.