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Robert Brooks v Simon Gray (Tue 21 Jan 2014)

Match won by Robert Brooks. Result: 15-12,15-7,12-15,15-12.

Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,756, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Gray: 2,069, level confidence: 57%.
Simon Gray to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Robert Brooks.

Robert Brooks won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Brooks played 25% better than Simon Gray in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Brooks actually played at a level of 2,128 and Simon Gray at a level of 1,707. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Brooks changes to +15% and Simon Gray changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Brooks becomes +6.9% and for Simon Gray becomes -8.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Robert Brooks is +5.2% and for Simon Gray is -6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Gray is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Brooks: 87%, Simon Gray: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Brooks: 71%, Simon Gray: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,844, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Simon Gray: 2,006, level confidence: 62%.