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Dave Rawlings v Chris Roper (Tue 21 Jan 2014)

Match won by Chris Roper. Result: 10-15,13-15,13-15.

Starting level for Dave Rawlings: 2,085, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,627, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Dave Rawlings to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Chris Roper.

Chris Roper won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Roper played 35% better than Dave Rawlings in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Roper actually played at a level of 2,139 and Dave Rawlings at a level of 1,586. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Roper changes to +25% and Dave Rawlings changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Roper becomes +11.1% and for Dave Rawlings becomes -10.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Chris Roper is +8.4% and for Dave Rawlings is -7.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dave Rawlings is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Roper: 86%, Dave Rawlings: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Roper: 65%, Dave Rawlings: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Rawlings: 1,983, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Chris Roper: 1,760, level confidence: 65%.