Richard Carr v James Clyne (Tue 21 Jan 2014)
Match won by James Clyne. Result: 14-16,15-11,15-10,10-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Richard Carr:
2,850, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Clyne:
3,043, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
James Clyne to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Richard Carr.
James Clyne won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Clyne played
10% better than Richard Carr in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Clyne actually played at a level of
3,088 and Richard Carr at a level of
2,808. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Clyne changes to +1.4% and Richard Carr changes to -1.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Clyne becomes +0.9% and for Richard Carr becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for James Clyne is +0.7% and for Richard Carr is -0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Clyne: 87%, Richard Carr: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Clyne: 86%, Richard Carr: 85%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Richard Carr:
2,825, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for James Clyne:
3,060, level confidence: 86%.