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Rory Pennell v Adam Fuller (Thu 23 Jan 2014)

Match won by Adam Fuller. Result: 18-20,10-12,5-11.

Starting level for Rory Pennell: 10,585, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Fuller: 7,580, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Rory Pennell to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Adam Fuller.

Adam Fuller won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Fuller played 38% better than Rory Pennell in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Fuller actually played at a level of 10,540 and Rory Pennell at a level of 7,613. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Fuller changes to +32% and Rory Pennell changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Fuller becomes +8.5% and for Rory Pennell becomes -7.9%.

Given Adam Fuller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change.

Given Rory Pennell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Adam Fuller is +5.8% and for Rory Pennell is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Fuller: 91%, Rory Pennell: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Fuller: 65%, Rory Pennell: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rory Pennell: 10,078, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Adam Fuller: 8,009, level confidence: 65%.