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Elliot Selby v Joshua Ryan (Thu 23 Jan 2014)

Match won by Elliot Selby. Result: 11-3,13-11,11-7.

Starting level for Elliot Selby: 4,270, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Ryan: 3,580, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Elliot Selby to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Joshua Ryan.

Elliot Selby won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliot Selby played 67% better than Joshua Ryan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliot Selby actually played at a level of 5,048 and Joshua Ryan at a level of 3,029. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliot Selby changes to +17% and Joshua Ryan changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliot Selby becomes +5.8% and for Joshua Ryan becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Elliot Selby is +4.3% and for Joshua Ryan is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliot Selby: 88%, Joshua Ryan: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliot Selby: 75%, Joshua Ryan: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliot Selby: 4,448, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Joshua Ryan: 3,428, level confidence: 77%.