SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Andrew Stout v Alex O'Sullivan (Thu 23 Jan 2014)

Match won by Andrew Stout. Result: 15-6,15-4,15-7.

Starting level for Andrew Stout: 2,635, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Alex O'Sullivan: 1,713, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Andrew Stout to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Alex O'Sullivan.

Andrew Stout won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Stout played 165% better than Alex O'Sullivan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Stout actually played at a level of 3,457 and Alex O'Sullivan at a level of 1,306. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Stout changes to +24% and Alex O'Sullivan changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Stout becomes +9.1% and for Alex O'Sullivan becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Andrew Stout is +6.9% and for Alex O'Sullivan is -6.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex O'Sullivan is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Stout: 83%, Alex O'Sullivan: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Stout: 63%, Alex O'Sullivan: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Stout: 2,811, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Alex O'Sullivan: 1,629, level confidence: 67%.