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Keith Timms v Alistair Coker (Thu 23 Jan 2014)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 9-11,11-1,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 7,716, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Alistair Coker: 5,510, level confidence: 57%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Alistair Coker.

Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 133% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 61% better than Alistair Coker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 8,267 and Alistair Coker at a level of 5,143. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +5.1% and Alistair Coker changes to -6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +2.1% and for Alistair Coker becomes -2.6%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alistair Coker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is +1.4% and for Alistair Coker is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 82%, Alistair Coker: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 77%, Alistair Coker: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 7,815, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Alistair Coker: 5,400, level confidence: 70%.