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Hannah Cartlidge v Louisa Dalwood (Mon 27 Jan 2014)

Match won by Louisa Dalwood. Result: 11-15,8-15,5-15.

Starting level for Hannah Cartlidge: 767, level confidence: 21%.
Starting level for Louisa Dalwood: 512, level confidence: 42%.
Hannah Cartlidge to win as she is currently playing 50% better than Louisa Dalwood.

Louisa Dalwood won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Louisa Dalwood played 88% better than Hannah Cartlidge in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Louisa Dalwood actually played at a level of 858 and Hannah Cartlidge at a level of 458. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 68% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 52% and 52% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood changes to +27% and Hannah Cartlidge changes to -52%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood becomes +14.3% and for Hannah Cartlidge becomes -25%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood is +10.7% and for Hannah Cartlidge is -18%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Louisa Dalwood is limited to +10% and Hannah Cartlidge is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Louisa Dalwood: 65%, Hannah Cartlidge: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Louisa Dalwood: 39%, Hannah Cartlidge: 28%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hannah Cartlidge: 696, level confidence: 28%.
Final level for Louisa Dalwood: 562, level confidence: 39%.