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Patrick Sockett v Andy Gibbs (Tue 28 Jan 2014)

Match won by Andy Gibbs. Result: 10-15,16-14,11-15,14-16.

Starting level for Patrick Sockett: 1,205, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Gibbs: 1,208, level confidence: 45%.
Andy Gibbs to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Patrick Sockett.

Andy Gibbs won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Gibbs played 23% better than Patrick Sockett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Gibbs actually played at a level of 1,336 and Patrick Sockett at a level of 1,090. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Gibbs changes to +10.6% and Patrick Sockett changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Gibbs becomes +6.2% and for Patrick Sockett becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Andy Gibbs is +4.6% and for Patrick Sockett is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Gibbs: 67%, Patrick Sockett: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Gibbs: 61%, Patrick Sockett: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Sockett: 1,166, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Andy Gibbs: 1,262, level confidence: 61%.