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Dan Collison v Nev Rimes (Thu 30 Jan 2014)

Match won by Dan Collison. Result: 15-9,15-11,7-15,12-15,15-13.

Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,327, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Nev Rimes: 1,678, level confidence: 67%.
Nev Rimes to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Dan Collison.

Dan Collison won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Collison played 8% better than Nev Rimes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Collison actually played at a level of 1,550 and Nev Rimes at a level of 1,437. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Collison changes to +15% and Nev Rimes changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Collison becomes +7.8% and for Nev Rimes becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Dan Collison is +5.8% and for Nev Rimes is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Collison: 81%, Nev Rimes: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Collison: 70%, Nev Rimes: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Collison: 1,402, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Nev Rimes: 1,596, level confidence: 70%.