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Andy Davis v Gareth Jones (Thu 30 Jan 2014)

Match won by Gareth Jones. Result: 11-15,11-15,10-15.

Starting level for Andy Davis: 768, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,384, level confidence: 58%.
Gareth Jones to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Andy Davis.

Gareth Jones won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gareth Jones played 45% better than Andy Davis in this match.

In this case, Gareth Jones played at level 1,185 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Gareth Jones would normally have been playing at level 1,257 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Davis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gareth Jones changes to 0% and Andy Davis changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gareth Jones becomes 0% and for Andy Davis becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Gareth Jones is 0% and for Andy Davis is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gareth Jones: 76%, Andy Davis: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gareth Jones: 68%, Andy Davis: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Davis: 788, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,382, level confidence: 68%.