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Steven Malduca v Martin White (Tue 04 Feb 2014)

Match won by Steven Malduca. Result: 15-8,15-6,15-9.

Starting level for Steven Malduca: 2,508, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Martin White: 2,373, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Steven Malduca to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Martin White.

Steven Malduca won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Malduca played 96% better than Martin White in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Malduca actually played at a level of 3,412 and Martin White at a level of 1,744. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Malduca changes to +35% and Martin White changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Malduca becomes +12.5% and for Martin White becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Steven Malduca is +9.3% and for Martin White is -9.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Martin White is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Malduca: 84%, Martin White: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Malduca: 62%, Martin White: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Malduca: 2,739, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Martin White: 2,257, level confidence: 62%.