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Stuart Kousoulou v Tom Hannah (Tue 04 Feb 2014)

Match won by Tom Hannah. Result: 15-9,6-15,10-15,3-15.

Starting level for Stuart Kousoulou: 1,597, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Hannah: 2,701, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Tom Hannah to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Stuart Kousoulou.

Tom Hannah won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Hannah played 36% better than Stuart Kousoulou in this match.

As Tom Hannah has played below his allowed range at 2,219, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Hannah would normally have been playing at level 2,498 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Kousoulou played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Hannah changes to -1.6% and Stuart Kousoulou changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Hannah becomes -1.1% and for Stuart Kousoulou becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tom Hannah is -0.8% and for Stuart Kousoulou is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Hannah: 85%, Stuart Kousoulou: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Hannah: 76%, Stuart Kousoulou: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Kousoulou: 1,636, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Tom Hannah: 2,675, level confidence: 76%.