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Mike Byrne v Richard Batchelor (Tue 04 Feb 2014)

Match won by Mike Byrne. Result: 15-11,12-15,15-6,18-16.

Starting level for Mike Byrne: 1,397, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Richard Batchelor: 1,232, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mike Byrne to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Richard Batchelor.

Mike Byrne won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Byrne played 25% better than Richard Batchelor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Byrne actually played at a level of 1,467 and Richard Batchelor at a level of 1,173. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Byrne changes to +4.7% and Richard Batchelor changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Byrne becomes +3.3% and for Richard Batchelor becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Mike Byrne is +2.5% and for Richard Batchelor is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Byrne: 82%, Richard Batchelor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Byrne: 78%, Richard Batchelor: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Byrne: 1,430, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Richard Batchelor: 1,199, level confidence: 80%.