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Keith Warman v Chris Roper (Tue 04 Feb 2014)

Match won by Chris Roper. Result: 14-16,16-14,6-15,15-9,10-15.

Starting level for Keith Warman: 1,378, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,800, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Chris Roper to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Keith Warman.

Chris Roper won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Roper played 11% better than Keith Warman in this match.

As Chris Roper has played below his allowed range at 1,615, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Roper would normally have been playing at level 1,758 (based on typical behaviour), Keith Warman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Roper changes to -4.8% and Keith Warman changes to +6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Roper becomes -3.1% and for Keith Warman becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Chris Roper is -2.3% and for Keith Warman is +3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Roper: 84%, Keith Warman: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Roper: 78%, Keith Warman: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Warman: 1,418, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Chris Roper: 1,757, level confidence: 78%.