Doug Green v Martyn Woollam (Thu 21 Sep 2017)Match won by Doug Green. Result: 4-9, 9-3, 9-6, 9-4.
Starting level for Doug Green: 2,188, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Martyn Woollam: 1,054, level confidence: 30%.
Expected winner: Doug Green as he is 108% better than Martyn Woollam.
Doug Green won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 23% better than Martyn Woollam in this match.
Due to the significant difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Doug Green was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him a possible level range for this match between 1,850 and 2,188. In this case, it appears he was playing at a level of 1,850.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Green actually played at a level of 1,547 and Martyn Woollam at a level of 1,261. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the respective confidence levels which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green would be -11% and for Martyn Woollam would be +20%.
After applying damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes -6% and for Martyn Woollam becomes +12%.
Apply match/event weighting which for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' is 75% leaving the adjustment for Doug Green as -5% and for Martyn Woollam as +9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 53%, Martyn Woollam: 47%. Reduce level confidence based on how much adjustment is needed. Doug Green: 45%, Martyn Woollam: 40%.
Final level for Doug Green: 2,089, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Martyn Woollam: 1,147, level confidence: 40%.
- This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results
and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken
to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
- A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had
enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows
these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
- Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results -
though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
- Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above
if this applies to this match.
- The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp
league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added
weight to the more important matches.
- There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which
are not covered here.
- You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better
than expected against your opponent.
- We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results
and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate
ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
- For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file
- If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated,
please contact us.
We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than
in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been
answered on the help page. We are unable to
answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your
level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before
contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points.
Or just be incredibly talented!