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Nic Birt v Liam Eason (Thu 28 Sep 2017)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 9-11,11-9,12-14,12-10,9-11.

Starting level for Nic Birt: 8,841, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Liam Eason: 10,950, level confidence: 53%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Nic Birt.

Liam Eason won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 8% better than Nic Birt in this match.

As Liam Eason has played below his allowed range at 10,075, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Liam Eason would normally have been playing at level 10,787 (based on typical behaviour), Nic Birt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to -4.6% and Nic Birt changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes -1.9% and for Nic Birt becomes +1.9%.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Liam Eason is -1.2% and for Nic Birt is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 73%, Nic Birt: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 68%, Nic Birt: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nic Birt: 8,939, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Liam Eason: 10,809, level confidence: 68%.