Toby Watts v Doug Green (Thu 05 Oct 2017)
Match won by Toby Watts. Result: 5-9,9-4,9-4,9-3.
Starting level for
Toby Watts:
1,742, level confidence: 28%.
Starting level for
Doug Green:
2,279, level confidence: 55%.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Toby Watts.
Toby Watts won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Toby Watts played
26% better than Doug Green in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Toby Watts actually played at a level of
2,239 and Doug Green at a level of
1,773. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Toby Watts changes to +25% and Doug Green changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Toby Watts becomes +10.6% and for Doug Green becomes -5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Toby Watts is +7.9% and for Doug Green is -3.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Toby Watts: 53%, Doug Green: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Toby Watts: 41%, Doug Green: 58%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Toby Watts:
1,877, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Doug Green:
2,193, level confidence: 58%.