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Dave Milford v Doug Green (Wed 11 Oct 2017)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 9-7,8-10,6-9,5-9.

Starting level for Dave Milford: 1,571, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Doug Green: 2,192, level confidence: 56%.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Dave Milford.

Doug Green won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 21% better than Dave Milford in this match.

As Doug Green has played below his allowed range at 1,963, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Doug Green would normally have been playing at level 2,117 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Milford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to -2.2% and Dave Milford changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes -1.6% and for Dave Milford becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is -1.2% and for Dave Milford is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 75%, Dave Milford: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 70%, Dave Milford: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Milford: 1,606, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Doug Green: 2,163, level confidence: 70%.