SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Alex Holland v Rob Holmes (Thu 12 Oct 2017)

Match won by Rob Holmes. Result: 1-9,6-9,9-10.

Starting level for Alex Holland: 774, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Rob Holmes: 1,759, level confidence: 66%.
Rob Holmes to win as he is currently playing 127% better than Alex Holland.

Rob Holmes won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Holmes played 42% better than Alex Holland in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob Holmes was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,193 and 1,759 without affecting his level.

As Rob Holmes has played below his allowed range at 1,143, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Holmes would normally have been playing at level 1,480 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Holland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Holmes changes to -2.8% and Alex Holland changes to +10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Holmes becomes -2.3% and for Alex Holland becomes +6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Holmes is -1.7% and for Alex Holland is +4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Holmes: 81%, Alex Holland: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Holmes: 64%, Alex Holland: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Holland: 811, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Rob Holmes: 1,727, level confidence: 64%.