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Nic Birt v Bradley Masters (Thu 12 Oct 2017)

Match won by Bradley Masters. Result: 6-11,11-5,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Nic Birt: 8,754, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Bradley Masters: 14,308, level confidence: 57%.
Bradley Masters to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Nic Birt.

Bradley Masters won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bradley Masters played 22% better than Nic Birt in this match.

As Bradley Masters has played below his allowed range at 11,422, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Bradley Masters would normally have been playing at level 13,350 (based on typical behaviour), Nic Birt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bradley Masters changes to -5.6% and Nic Birt changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bradley Masters becomes -2% and for Nic Birt becomes +2.8%.

Given Bradley Masters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Bradley Masters is -1.2% and for Nic Birt is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bradley Masters: 76%, Nic Birt: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bradley Masters: 65%, Nic Birt: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nic Birt: 8,902, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Bradley Masters: 14,124, level confidence: 65%.