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Rob Holmes v Doug Green (Wed 18 Oct 2017)

Match won by Rob Holmes. Result: 9-6,9-5,0-9,9-3.

Starting level for Rob Holmes: 1,731, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Doug Green: 2,168, level confidence: 68%.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Rob Holmes.

Rob Holmes won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Holmes played 20% better than Doug Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Holmes actually played at a level of 2,120 and Doug Green at a level of 1,770. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Holmes changes to +20% and Doug Green changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Holmes becomes +8.9% and for Doug Green becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Holmes is +6.7% and for Doug Green is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Doug Green is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Holmes: 79%, Doug Green: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Holmes: 65%, Doug Green: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Holmes: 1,843, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Doug Green: 2,062, level confidence: 67%.