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Rob Holmes v Alex Broadbridge (Wed 25 Oct 2017)

Match won by Rob Holmes. Result: 9-5,9-1,9-5.

Starting level for Rob Holmes: 1,841, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Alex Broadbridge: 1,490, level confidence: 52%.
Rob Holmes to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Alex Broadbridge.

Rob Holmes won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Holmes played 57% better than Alex Broadbridge in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Holmes actually played at a level of 2,075 and Alex Broadbridge at a level of 1,322. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Holmes changes to +9.4% and Alex Broadbridge changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Holmes becomes +4.8% and for Alex Broadbridge becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Holmes is +3.6% and for Alex Broadbridge is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Holmes: 79%, Alex Broadbridge: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Holmes: 70%, Alex Broadbridge: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Holmes: 1,905, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Alex Broadbridge: 1,424, level confidence: 64%.