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Doug Green v Caroline Sutton (Thu 26 Oct 2017)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-6.

Starting level for Doug Green: 2,121, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Caroline Sutton: 950, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Caroline Sutton.

Doug Green won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 76% better than Caroline Sutton in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Doug Green was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,457 and 2,121 without affecting his level.

In this case, Doug Green played at level 1,732 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Doug Green would normally have been playing at level 1,795 (based on typical behaviour), Caroline Sutton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to 0% and Caroline Sutton changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes 0% and for Caroline Sutton becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is 0% and for Caroline Sutton is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 86%, Caroline Sutton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 76%, Caroline Sutton: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 2,118, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Caroline Sutton: 966, level confidence: 75%.