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Tom Cramp v Doug Green (Thu 02 Nov 2017)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 7-9,9-2,2-9,2-9.

Starting level for Tom Cramp: 911, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Doug Green: 2,118, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 132% better than Tom Cramp.

Doug Green won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 24% better than Tom Cramp in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Doug Green was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,411 and 2,118 without affecting his level.

As Doug Green has played below his allowed range at 1,261, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Doug Green would normally have been playing at level 1,768 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Cramp played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to -7% and Tom Cramp changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes -3.8% and for Tom Cramp becomes +9.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is -2.8% and for Tom Cramp is +7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 86%, Tom Cramp: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 63%, Tom Cramp: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Cramp: 973, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Doug Green: 2,057, level confidence: 63%.