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Neil Moore v Rob Holmes (Fri 03 Nov 2017)

Match won by Rob Holmes. Result: 1-9,3-9,5-9.

Starting level for Neil Moore: 1,259, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob Holmes: 1,903, level confidence: 68%.
Rob Holmes to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Neil Moore.

Rob Holmes won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Holmes played 76% better than Neil Moore in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Holmes actually played at a level of 2,053 and Neil Moore at a level of 1,167. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Holmes changes to +6.4% and Neil Moore changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Holmes becomes +3.6% and for Neil Moore becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Holmes is +2.7% and for Neil Moore is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Holmes: 82%, Neil Moore: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Holmes: 76%, Neil Moore: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Moore: 1,223, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Rob Holmes: 1,952, level confidence: 76%.