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Mike Dickens v Nic Birt (Thu 16 Nov 2017)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 7-11,9-11,7-11.

Starting level for Mike Dickens: 6,044, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,262, level confidence: 67%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Mike Dickens.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 47% better than Mike Dickens in this match.

In this case, Nic Birt played at level 8,902 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mike Dickens is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 82%, Mike Dickens: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 80%, Mike Dickens: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Dickens: 6,035, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nic Birt: 9,248, level confidence: 80%.