Nic Birt v Lewys Hurst (Thu 23 Nov 2017)
Match won by Lewys Hurst. Result: 11-8,5-11,9-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Nic Birt:
9,166, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewys Hurst:
9,665, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Lewys Hurst to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Nic Birt.
Lewys Hurst won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewys Hurst played
26% better than Nic Birt in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewys Hurst actually played at a level of
10,566 and Nic Birt at a level of
8,384. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst changes to +9.1% and Nic Birt changes to -8.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst becomes +3% and for Nic Birt becomes -3%.
Given Lewys Hurst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.
Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Lewys Hurst is +1.9% and for Nic Birt is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewys Hurst: 88%, Nic Birt: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewys Hurst: 80%, Nic Birt: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nic Birt:
8,978, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Lewys Hurst:
9,836, level confidence: 80%.