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Anders Berg v Rob Holmes (Wed 29 Nov 2017)

Match won by Anders Berg. Result: 9-2,6-9,7-9,9-1,9-2.

Starting level for Anders Berg: 3,287, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for Rob Holmes: 1,954, level confidence: 68%.
Anders Berg to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Rob Holmes.

Anders Berg won 60% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anders Berg played 16% better than Rob Holmes in this match.

As Anders Berg has played below his allowed range at 2,498, his level reduction is 10.7% before damping. On the assumption that Anders Berg would normally have been playing at level 3,044 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Holmes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anders Berg changes to -8.2% and Rob Holmes changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anders Berg becomes -3.7% and for Rob Holmes becomes +3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Anders Berg is -2.7% and for Rob Holmes is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anders Berg: 61%, Rob Holmes: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anders Berg: 50%, Rob Holmes: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anders Berg: 3,195, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Rob Holmes: 2,005, level confidence: 68%.