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Andrew Neal v Nic Birt (Thu 30 Nov 2017)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 4-11,3-11,12-10,5-11.

Starting level for Andrew Neal: 7,564, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nic Birt: 8,980, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Andrew Neal.

Nic Birt won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 43% better than Andrew Neal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nic Birt actually played at a level of 9,851 and Andrew Neal at a level of 6,895. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to +8.9% and Andrew Neal changes to -8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes +3% and for Andrew Neal becomes -3%.

Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Given Andrew Neal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is +2% and for Andrew Neal is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 89%, Andrew Neal: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 81%, Andrew Neal: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Neal: 7,402, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nic Birt: 9,142, level confidence: 81%.