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Nic Birt v Aran Edwards (Thu 07 Dec 2017)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,146, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Aran Edwards: 5,023, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Aran Edwards.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 200% better than Aran Edwards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nic Birt actually played at a level of 11,740 and Aran Edwards at a level of 3,913. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to +19% and Aran Edwards changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes +5.3% and for Aran Edwards becomes -6.5%.

Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Given Aran Edwards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is +3.5% and for Aran Edwards is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 89%, Aran Edwards: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 69%, Aran Edwards: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nic Birt: 9,450, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Aran Edwards: 4,785, level confidence: 67%.